Bitcoin Under the Spotlight: Geopolitical Shifts and Halving Ahead

According to financial experts, Bitcoin could be poised for a significant uptick in the coming months, driven by ongoing geopolitical shifts and profit motives. While some market sectors grapple with uncertainty, there’s a cohort of optimists who see the current landscape as the dawn of a bullish cycle. All eyes are currently on the looming halving slated for April 20, especially in light of recent approvals for Bitcoin ETFs. Notably, Hong Kong has already given the nod to its inaugural Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Over the weekend, Iran launched an attack on Israel from its territory, stirring up turbulence in the crypto market. Bitcoin briefly fell to $59,900 before trading sideways between $61,800 and $64,000. Several altcoins, including ADA, AVAX, BCH, and FIL, also took a hit. The leading cryptocurrency is priced at $62,369, as per CoinMarketCap.

Amidst these developments, we’d like to offer a couple of perspectives. Firstly, Edouard Hindi, a senior executive at Tyr Capital, shared his insights with CoinDesk via email. Hindi emphasized Bitcoin’s continued status as a haven and underscored the role that ETFs are playing. In his own words:

“Bitcoin remains a viable doomsday asset in 2024, as its correlation to Gold recently increased, and investors continue to diversify away from traditional financial assets… The ETF is currently spearheading this Doomsday rally and we should expect $120,000 to be hit in the coming months as global geopolitics continues to deteriorate and the middle classes continue to find ways to protect their wealth”.

It’s important to draw a parallel with Jim Thorne’s stance, a prominent figure at Wellington-Altus, who recently expressed his concerns in a YouTube interview. Thorne highlighted what he perceives as an imminent financial crisis, attributing it to politicians’ lack of fiscal discipline. According to this finance expert, the measures implemented by the United States and Canada are considered highly irresponsible. Thorne advocates for Bitcoin investment as the optimal safeguard against crises:

“We’re heading towards a significant economic downturn. Bitcoin will remain a haven, attracting substantial capital… It will further solidify its position as a competitive store of value, reshaping investment trends away from real estate”.

Bitcoin’s Halving Just Around the Corner

Some executives display optimism.

As the Bitcoin halving approaches, expectations have a direct impact on the mining sector. With fewer rewards available, competition among miners intensifies, leading to a prevailing sentiment that only the most efficient and profitable will survive. According to analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, Bitcoin miners have experienced low performance in 2024 due to ETFs having absorbed retail liquidity from mining stocks and concerns surrounding the halving itself.

However, many CEOs claim to be in a favorable position. According to a report by Bernstein, a team from the firm interviewed key figures from companies such as CleanSpark (CLSK), Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Blockchain (RIOT), Cipher Mining (CIFR), and Hut 8 (HUT). The CEOs of these companies reported that “miners’ dollar revenues are at historic highs, providing them with a robust cushion ahead of the halving”, as cited by Bernstein.

The report also notes that “The CEO of CleanSpark hopes for industry consolidation around four leading miners: RIOT, MARA, CLSK, and CIFR”. Similarly, the CEO of MARA shared its perspective, believing in industry consolidation and asserting that CLSK will be its main competitor when acquiring other companies to bolster its market position.

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